How the Middle East’s escalating conflict could affect Spain

Whether it be Spain’s status on the international stage, having to pick sides or price rises hitting consumers in the pocket, the growing regional conflict between Israel, Iran and Lebanon could have several impacts on Spain.

Politics and diplomacy
On a political and diplomatic level, a wider Middle Eastern war drawing Iran into the equation could put Spain in somewhat of an uncomfortable position, particularly compared to many of its western allies. The escalation in fighting and tensions come at a time when diplomatic relations between Spain and Israel are already frayed.
Spain has consistently been one of the more openly pro-Palestinian voices in the west, especially since it recognised Palestinian statehood along with Ireland and Norway.
READ ALSO: Why does Spain support Palestine?
Spain’s government is made up of a coalition of Sánchez’s centre-left Socialists (PSOE) and the far-left party Sumar, some members of which are very proudly pro-Palestinian and have repeatedly criticised Israel.
Sumar leader and Minister for Labour, Yolanda Díaz, recently outraged Israelis when she used the phrase: ‘Palestine will be free, from the river to the sea’, echoing a Palestinian slogan that does not recognise Israel and includes territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean.
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In response Israel recalled its ambassador to Spain and a brief diplomatic spat ensued.
Further escalations in the Middle East conflict would put Spain in a tricky position diplomatically as it would have to manoeuvre the geopolitical scene as a member of NATO and the EU whilst also being one of the more outspoken pro-Palestinian voices out of step with major players like the US, UK and Germany.
In response to Israel taking the conflict into Lebanon, Sánchez had strong words and on Monday called on the international community “not to remain silent for another minute” in the face of the “massacre that has become routine” by Israel.
“It is time to say enough is enough,” he said, in words markedly different to other EU and NATO leaders.
However he also condemned Iran’s attack on Israel and called for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon: “The government of Spain condemns Iran’s attack on Israel and calls for this spiral of violence to end now.”
Acabo de hablar con @antonioguterres sobre la alarmante situación en Oriente Próximo. El Gobierno de España condena el ataque de Irán contra Israel y pide que esta espiral de violencia termine ya.Para alcanzar la paz, es imprescindible un alto el fuego en Gaza y en Líbano, y…— Pedro Sánchez (@sanchezcastejon) October 1, 2024

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Trade and economics
A worsening conflict could also have a few economic and trade impacts. On Tuesday, when American sources discovered Iran’s planned missile strikes, the Spanish stock market, the IBEX 35, mirrored the American indexes and suffered heavy falls totalling 1.7 percent, the biggest fall since August.
Similarly, since Israel’s invasion of Lebanon began on Tuesday, the price of crude oil has risen by up to 10 percent for certain barrels such as European Brent. And it is likely to rise further still: “It is foreseeable that the rise will continue, although we have to wait for further developments,” Víctor Ruiz Ezpeleta, professor at OBS Business School, explained on Spanish radio station Onda Cero.
Rising oil prices will likely be felt in the pockets of Spaniards in the medium-term as price increases will be passed on by the oil companies. As oil costs increase, so could fuel, transport, and foodstuffs, along with airline tickets and tourism.
There’s also the issue of trade. According to data obtained by the OEC for 2022, Spain’s exports to Iran amounted to $240 million.
Spanish exports to Israel have been hit ever since the conflict in Gaza first began in October 2023, reduced by 35.6 percent year-on-year as of February. Trade experts in Spain worry because Israel was one of the few countries in the region with which Spain had a trade surplus.
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Security
Following news that three men were arrested after attacks on Israeli embassies in Stockholm and Copenhagen, some fear that there’s a possibility of the conflict spilling over into Europe in the form of terror attacks.
José María Peredo, Professor of International Relations at the European University of Madrid told Onda Cero that Spain should be cautious.
“We must be very cautious, because it is not that we are on the frontline, but we are in a high-risk area,” he said, “And therefore, foreign policy must also go hand in hand with security policy.”
During Middle Eastern conflicts in the 20th century, terrorist attacks sometimes followed in Europe or America. Spain’s terror threat level is currently on 4/5 – ‘high risk’.
READ ALSO: Does Spain have its own anti-missile ‘Iron Dome’?

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Tensions are rising in the Middle East following Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes.
Many now fear that the fighting could escalate into an all out regional conflict, the prospect of which will have consequences on politics and economics around the world.
As such, it could have several implications on Spain and Spanish life.
Most immediately, there’s the issue of Spaniards in the region. Spanish defence minister Margarita Robles confirmed on Wednesday that two military planes will fly to Beirut to evacuate around 500 Spanish citizens, around half of Lebanon’s Spanish population.
READ ALSO: Does Spain have its own anti-missile ‘Iron Dome’?
Politics and diplomacy
On a political and diplomatic level, a wider Middle Eastern war drawing Iran into the equation could put Spain in somewhat of an uncomfortable position, particularly compared to many of its western allies. The escalation in fighting and tensions come at a time when diplomatic relations between Spain and Israel are already frayed.
Spain has consistently been one of the more openly pro-Palestinian voices in the west, especially since it recognised Palestinian statehood along with Ireland and Norway.
READ ALSO: Why does Spain support Palestine?
Spain’s government is made up of a coalition of Sánchez’s centre-left Socialists (PSOE) and the far-left party Sumar, some members of which are very proudly pro-Palestinian and have repeatedly criticised Israel.
Sumar leader and Minister for Labour, Yolanda Díaz, recently outraged Israelis when she used the phrase: ‘Palestine will be free, from the river to the sea’, echoing a Palestinian slogan that does not recognise Israel and includes territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean.
In response Israel recalled its ambassador to Spain and a brief diplomatic spat ensued.
Further escalations in the Middle East conflict would put Spain in a tricky position diplomatically as it would have to manoeuvre the geopolitical scene as a member of NATO and the EU whilst also being one of the more outspoken pro-Palestinian voices out of step with major players like the US, UK and Germany.
In response to Israel taking the conflict into Lebanon, Sánchez had strong words and on Monday called on the international community “not to remain silent for another minute” in the face of the “massacre that has become routine” by Israel.
“It is time to say enough is enough,” he said, in words markedly different to other EU and NATO leaders.
However he also condemned Iran’s attack on Israel and called for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon: “The government of Spain condemns Iran’s attack on Israel and calls for this spiral of violence to end now.”

Acabo de hablar con @antonioguterres sobre la alarmante situación en Oriente Próximo. El Gobierno de España condena el ataque de Irán contra Israel y pide que esta espiral de violencia termine ya.Para alcanzar la paz, es imprescindible un alto el fuego en Gaza y en Líbano, y…
Trade and economics
A worsening conflict could also have a few economic and trade impacts. On Tuesday, when American sources discovered Iran’s planned missile strikes, the Spanish stock market, the IBEX 35, mirrored the American indexes and suffered heavy falls totalling 1.7 percent, the biggest fall since August.
Similarly, since Israel’s invasion of Lebanon began on Tuesday, the price of crude oil has risen by up to 10 percent for certain barrels such as European Brent. And it is likely to rise further still: “It is foreseeable that the rise will continue, although we have to wait for further developments,” Víctor Ruiz Ezpeleta, professor at OBS Business School, explained on Spanish radio station Onda Cero.
Rising oil prices will likely be felt in the pockets of Spaniards in the medium-term as price increases will be passed on by the oil companies. As oil costs increase, so could fuel, transport, and foodstuffs, along with airline tickets and tourism.
There’s also the issue of trade. According to data obtained by the OEC for 2022, Spain’s exports to Iran amounted to $240 million.
Spanish exports to Israel have been hit ever since the conflict in Gaza first began in October 2023, reduced by 35.6 percent year-on-year as of February. Trade experts in Spain worry because Israel was one of the few countries in the region with which Spain had a trade surplus.
Security
Following news that three men were arrested after attacks on Israeli embassies in Stockholm and Copenhagen, some fear that there’s a possibility of the conflict spilling over into Europe in the form of terror attacks.
José María Peredo, Professor of International Relations at the European University of Madrid told Onda Cero that Spain should be cautious.
“We must be very cautious, because it is not that we are on the frontline, but we are in a high-risk area,” he said, “And therefore, foreign policy must also go hand in hand with security policy.”
During Middle Eastern conflicts in the 20th century, terrorist attacks sometimes followed in Europe or America. Spain’s terror threat level is currently on 4/5 – ‘high risk’.
READ ALSO: Does Spain have its own anti-missile ‘Iron Dome’?

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